The REQUITE manuscript: "Pitfalls in prediction modelling for normal tissue toxicity in radiation therapy: an illustration with the ISE and MARIE cohorts", Chamberlain Mbah, Hubert Thierens, Olivier Thas, Jan De Neve, Jenny Chang-Claude, Petra Seibold, Akke Botma, Catharine West, Kim De Ruyck, has been accepted for publication in the International Journal of Radiation Oncology, Biology, Physics. This is the official Journal of the American Society for Radiation Oncology, ASTRO, also known as the Red Journal.
Overfitting and cohort heterogeneity are identified as the two main causes of replication failure of prediction models across cohorts. Cross validation and other resampling techniques (e.g. bootstrapping) can reduce the effect of overfitting. But the development of validated predictive models for radiotherapy toxicity requires strategies that deal with cohort heterogeneity. Published Online: April 01, 2016: Abstract